Impact Study of the future requirements of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention on Short Sea Shipping’

Emissions restriction Impact study

James Kehoe, Zoi Nikopoulou, Mary Liddane, Linda Ramstedt & Ioannis G. Koliousis.
This deliverable was prepared to assess the potential modal shift that may occur in the Mediterranean and the North East Atlantic if a maritime fuel sulphur content limit 0.5% is introduced in 2015, possibly further reduced to 0.1% in 2020. The study was part of a DG MOVE request to evaluate the consequences of fuel sulphur limits.

In October 2008 the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)unanimously adopted the revised Annex VI to MARPOL 73/78 (International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships), which places restrictions on nitrogen and sulphur oxides emissions from ship traffic. The IMO aims to reduce emissions from ships by reducing the sulphur content of fuel or measures that will give equivalent reductions. Lowering the sulphur content in fuels is also a way to reduce emissions of particulate matter from shipping. 

The study was completed using the NECL model in addition to 2005 freight data. The NECL model, which examined a sample of RoRo routes in Northern Europe, predicts an approximate 10% loss in cargo volumes from RoRo to road/rail alternatives as a result of the introduction of the 2015 MARPOL sulphur limit of 0.1%. It also found that the full implementation of the infrastructural and environmental Eurovignettes do not offset the impact of the 2015 MARPOL sulphur limit of 0.1%. 

At the request of DG Move, this report also included a limited cost-benefit analysis of various sulphur limit changes within all European seas for 2015 and 2020. This assessment was carried out primarily using input from AEAt (2005 and 2009) and Purvin & Gertz (2009).